Sunday, September 9, 2012

INACCURATE PCOS AND THE 2010 PARTY LIST ELECTION


The mock election to demonstrate the accuracy of the SMARTMATIC-provided PCOS Machines was conducted on July 24 and July 25 at the House of Representative.

Two hundred and thirteen (213) votes out of 8,295 votes that were counted by the PCOS Machine differed from the count conducted by the Manual Audit on each of the candidates of the audited elected positions.
The difference that amounts to 213 votes resulted in an error rating of 2.56781% or an accuracy rating of 97.43219%.

Let us consider the implication of the error rating of the PCOS Machines on the May 2010 Party List Election.

On April 27, 2012, The COMELEC issued Resolution 9412, which disqualified 32 Party List Candidates who received votes in the May 2010 Party List Election.

The total number of party list votes of the remaining and qualified 155 party list groups after the votes of the disqualified party list votes are removed shall be 29,165,716.  Hence, the revised percentage share of each qualified party list group shall be computed.

The remaining 155 Party List groups with their respective party list votes and percentage share of the valid total party list votes are shown in the following table.

RANK
PARTY LIST CANDIDATES
VOTES
% SHARE
1
AKO BICOL POLITICAL PARTY
1,524,006
5.22533%
2
COALITION OF ASSOCIATIONS OF SENIOR CITIZENS IN THE PHILIPPINES, INC.
1,296,950
4.44683%
3
BUHAY HAYAAN YUMABONG
1,250,467
4.28746%
4
AKBAYAN! CITIZEN'S ACTION PARTY
1,061,947
3.64108%
5
GABRIELA WOMENS PARTY
1,006,752
3.45183%
6
COOPERATIVE NATCCO NETWORK PARTY
944,864
3.23964%
7
1ST CONSUMERS ALLIANCE FOR RURAL ENERGY
770,015
2.64014%
8
ABONO
766,993
2.62978%
9
BAYAN MUNA
750,100
2.57186%
10
AN WARAY
712,405
2.44261%
11
CITIZEN'S BATTLE AGAINST CORRUPTION
653,399
2.24030%
12
ADVOCACY FOR TEACHER EMPOWERMENT THROUGH ACTION COOPERATION AND HARMONY TOWARDS EDUCATIONAL REFORMS
617,898
2.11858%
13
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR ALLIANCE OF THE PHILIPPINES, INC.
516,052
1.76938%
14
BUTIL FARMERS PARTY
507,091
1.73865%
15
ALLIANCE FOR BARANGAY CONCERNS PARTY
471,407
1.61631%
16
ANAKPAWIS
447,201
1.53331%
17
KABATAAN PARTYLIST
418,776
1.43585%
18
LPG MARKETERS ASSOCIATION, INC.
417,771
1.43240%
19
ABANTE MINDANAO, INC.
378,345
1.29723%
20
ACT TEACHERS
372,903
1.27857%
21
ANG ASOSASYON SANG MANGUNGUMA NGA BISAYA-OWA MANGUNGUMA, INC.
357,804
1.22680%
22
YOU AGAINST CORRUPTION AND POVERTY
337,487
1.15714%
23
ASSOCIATION OF PHILIPPINE ELECTRIC COOPERATIVES
313,689
1.07554%
24
ALLIANCE FOR NATIONALISM AND DEMOCRACY
297,984
1.02169%
25
KASANGGA SA KAUNLARAN, INC.
296,695
1.01727%
26
BAGONG HENERASYON
293,079
1.00488%
27
ANG GALING PINOY
269,273
0.92325%
28
AGBIAG! TIMPUYOG ILOCANO, INC.
263,234
0.90255%
29
PUWERSA NG BAYANING ATLETA
258,869
0.88758%
30
ARTS BUSINESS AND SCIENCE PROFESSIONALS
257,457
0.88274%
31
TRADE UNION CONGRESS PARTY
245,031
0.84013%
32
ALYANSA NG MGA GRUPONG HALIGI NG AGHAM AT TEKNOLOHIYA PARA SA MAMAMAYAN, INC.
242,630
0.83190%
33
DEMOCRATIC INDEPENDENT WORKERS' ASSOCIATION, INC.
239,029
0.81955%
34
KAPATIRAN NG MGA NAKULONG NA WALANG SALA
234,788
0.80501%
35
KALINGA-ADVOCACY FOR SOCIAL EMPOWERMENT AND NATION BUILDING THROUGH EASING POVERTY, INC.
230,516
0.79037%
36
ANG LABAN NG INDIGONG FILIPINO
227,431
0.77979%
37
ALAGAD PARTY-LIST
227,281
0.77927%
38
1-UNITED TRANSPORT KOALISYON
220,617
0.75643%
39
UNA ANG PAMILYA FORMERLY ALLIANCE OF NEO-CONSERVATIVES
218,181
0.74807%
40
ALLIANCE OF VOLUNTEER EDUCATORS
216,100
0.74094%
41
AANGAT TAYO
177,503
0.60860%
42
ADHIKAING TINATAGUYOD NG KOOPERATIBA
175,636
0.60220%
43
KASOSYO PRODUCER-CONSUMER EXCHANGE ASSOCIATION, INC.
171,589
0.58832%
44
ASSOCIATION OF LABORERS AND EMPLOYEES
170,543
0.58474%
45
ALAY BUHAY COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT FOUNDATION, INC.
164,044
0.56245%
46
AKSYON MAGSASAKA PARTIDO TINIG NG MASA
162,972
0.55878%
47
ANAK MINDANAO
161,418
0.55345%
48
KATIPUNAN NG MGA ANAK NG BAYAN ALL FILIPINO DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT
161,127
0.55245%
49
VETERANS FREEDOM PARTY
155,672
0.53375%
50
ALLIANCE FOR RURAL AND AGRARIAN RECONSTRUCTION, INC.
147,408
0.50542%
51
ATONG PAGLAUM
146,363
0.50183%
52
PILIPINO ASSOCIATION FOR COUNTRY - URBAN-POOR YOUTH ADVANCEMENT AND WELFARE
143,553
0.49220%
53
ABANTE TRIBUNG MAKABANSA
142,988
0.49026%
54
ANGAT ATING KABUHAYAN PILIPINAS, INC.
142,417
0.48830%
55
PARTIDO NG MANGGAGAWA
140,257
0.48090%
56
ACTION FOR DYNAMIC DEVELOPMENT, INC.
139,494
0.47828%
57
ALYANSANG BAYANIHAN NG MGA MAGSASAKA, MANGGAGAWANG-BUKID AT MANGINGISDA
138,310
0.47422%
58
ALLIANCE TRANSPORT SECTOR
136,828
0.46914%
59
AKSYON NG MAMAMAYANG NAGKAKAISA
133,048
0.45618%
60
KAUNLARAN NG AGRIKULTURA, ASENSADONG PROBINSYA ANGAT NG BAYAN
130,498
0.44744%
61
BARANGAY NATIN
129,089
0.44261%
62
1GUARDIANS NATIONALIST OF THE PHILIPPINES, INC.
121,508
0.41661%
63
1-AKO BABAENG ASTIG AASENSO
121,405
0.41626%
64
BABAE PARA SA KAUNLARAN
117,518
0.40293%
65
BAGONG BAYAN NA NAGTATAGUYOD NG DEMOKRATIKONG IDEOLOHIYA AT LAYUNIN
115,964
0.39760%
66
AHON PINOY
115,789
0.39700%
67
KATRIBU INDIGENOUS PEOPLE'S SECTORAL PARTY
114,966
0.39418%
68
ANG LADLAD LBGT PARTY
114,120
0.39128%
69
1-AANI
113,434
0.38893%
70
ONE ADVOCACY FOR HEALTH, PROGRESS AND OPPORTUNITY
111,495
0.38228%
71
CONFEDERATION OF NON-STOCK SAVINGS AND LOAN ASSOCIATIONS, INC.
111,198
0.38126%
72
KABALIKAT NG MAMAMAYAN
110,085
0.37745%
73
BINHI: PARTIDO NG MGA MAGSASAKA PARA SA MGA MAGSASAKA
108,174
0.37089%
74
AKAP BATA, INC.
107,478
0.36851%
75
AGILA NG KATUTUBONG PILIPINO, INC.
105,406
0.36140%
76
COCONUT FARMERS ASSOCIATION OF LINAMON, LANAO DEL NORTE, INC.
105,049
0.36018%
77
FILIPINO MUSLIM ORGANIZATION
105,033
0.36012%
78
BIYAYANG BUKID
102,191
0.35038%
79
ABAKADA GURO
97,872
0.33557%
80
FIRM 24-K ASSOCIATION, INC.
96,292
0.33015%
81
ABANTE ILONGGO
94,815
0.32509%
82
ALYANSA NG OFW PARTY
91,663
0.31428%
83
AKO AYOKO SA BAWAL NA DROGA
90,511
0.31033%
84
ACTION BROTHERHOOD FOR ACTIVE DREAMERS, INC.
88,743
0.30427%
85
COCOFED-PHILIPPINE COCONUT PRODUCERS FEDERATION, INC.
88,536
0.30356%
86
PRO-ACTIVE ON CLIMATE CHANGE LEADERS, INC.
88,457
0.30329%
87
ACTION LEAGUE OF INDIGENOUS MASSES
86,491
0.29655%
88
WOMENPOWER, INC.
86,411
0.29628%
89
1ST KABALIKAT NG BAYAN GINHAWANG SANGKATAUHAN
84,687
0.29036%
90
YOUTH LEAGUE FOR PEACE AND ADVANCEMENT
82,642
0.28335%
91
THE TRUE MARCOS LOYALIST (FOR GOD COUNTRY and PEOPLE) ASSOCIATION OF THE PHIL., INC.
81,584
0.27973%
92
PARTIDO NG KATUTUBONG PILIPINO
80,064
0.27451%
93
ANG TAO MUNA AT BAYAN
79,255
0.27174%
94
AGAPAY NG INDIGENOUS PEOPLES RIGHTS ALLIANCE, INC.
77,270
0.26493%
95
BAYANI
74,993
0.25713%
96
ALLIANCE OF ASSOCIATIONS OF ACCREDITED WORKERS IN THE WATER SECTOR
74,152
0.25424%
97
VENDORS AND TRADERS ALLIANCE OF PHILIPPINES PARTY
74,041
0.25386%
98
ALLIANCE OF MINDANAO ELDERS
71,503
0.24516%
99
ALLIANCE OF PEOPLE'S ORGANIZATIONS
70,901
0.24310%
100
BIYAHENG PINOY LABOR ASSOCIATION, INC.
70,480
0.24165%
101
ALMA SA PAGKAHIKAOS AT IGNORANSIYA
70,070
0.24025%
102
AKBAY PINOY OFW-NATIONAL, INC.
67,946
0.23297%
103
CHAMPIONS FOR INNOVATIVE EMPLOYMENT
67,800
0.23246%
104
ORGANIZATION OF REGIONAL ADVOCATES FOR GOOD GOVERNANCE ONWARD NATION-BUILDING
67,366
0.23098%
105
PARENTS ENABLING PARENTS COALITION PARTY
65,299
0.22389%
106
ADHIKAIN NG MGA DAKILANG ANAK MAHARLIKA
63,065
0.21623%
107
A BLESSED FEDERATION OF FARMERS AND FISHERMEN INTERNATIONAL, INC.
62,529
0.21439%
108
ANG MATA'Y ALAGAAN
62,249
0.21343%
109
SULONG! BARANGAY MOVEMENT
60,606
0.20780%
110
ALLIANCE FOR RURAL CONCERNS
57,515
0.19720%
111
ANG AGRIKULTURA NATIN ISULONG
57,190
0.19609%
112
ALLIANCE OF BICOLNON PARTY
55,159
0.18912%
113
ADHIKAIN AT KILUSAN NG ORDINARYONG TAO PARA SA LUPA, HANAPBUHAY AT KAUNLARAN
54,182
0.18577%
114
ACTION FOR DEMOCRACY AND DEVELOPMENT FOR THE TRIBAL PEOPLE
53,510
0.18347%
115
KABABAIHANG LINGKOD BAYAN SA PILIPINAS
50,466
0.17303%
116
ASOSASYON NG MGA MALILIIT NA NEGOSYANTENG GUMAGANAP
50,127
0.17187%
117
ALLIANCE OF ADVOCATES IN MINING ADVANCEMENT FOR NATIONAL PROGRESS
49,990
0.17140%
118
ADHIKAING ALAY NG MARINO SA SAMBAYANAN, INC.
49,893
0.17107%
119
AGRI-AGRA REPORMA PARA SA MAGSASAKA NG PILIPINAS MOVEMENT
49,635
0.17018%
120
ALAGAAN NATIN ATING KALUSUGAN
47,828
0.16399%
121
BATANG IWAS SA DROGA FOUNDATION, INC.
45,708
0.15672%
122
KALAHI SECTORAL PARTY
45,494
0.15598%
123
GREEN FORCE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT-SONS AND DAUGHTERS OF MOTHER EARTH
44,100
0.15120%
124
ADVOCATES FOR SPECIAL CHILDREN AND HANDICAPPED MOVEMENT
41,809
0.14335%
125
ASSOCIATION FOR RIGHTEOUSNESS ADVOCACY IN LEADERSHIP
41,159
0.14112%
126
AKO AGILA SA NAGKAISANG MAGSASAKA
39,448
0.13525%
127
YES WE CAN, INC.
36,819
0.12624%
128
SECTORAL PARTY OF ANG MINERO (ANG MINERO)
36,650
0.12566%
129
PAMILYANG OFW-SME NETWORK FOUNDATION
35,636
0.12218%
130
ITENERANT VENDORS ALLIANCE OF THE PHILIPPINES
34,785
0.11927%
131
PASANG MASDA NATIONWIDE, INC.
34,769
0.11921%
132
ALYANSA NG MAMAMAYANG NAGHIHIRAP
32,957
0.11300%
133
BAGO NATIONAL CULTURAL SOCIETY OF THE PHILIPPINES
32,942
0.11295%
134
ABANG LINGKOD, INC.
32,122
0.11014%
135
1-AANGAT KA PILIPINO
32,048
0.10988%
136
KOALISYON NG MGA KATUTUBONG SAMAHAN NG PILIPINAS
31,667
0.10858%
137
ALLIANCE OF NATIONAL URBAN POOR ORGANIZATIONS ASSEMBLY, INC.
31,330
0.10742%
138
ALLIANCE OF REGIONAL COALITIONS AGAINST PEOPLE'S POVERTY, INC.
30,845
0.10576%
139
UNITED MOVEMENT AGAINST DRUGS FOUNDATION, INC.
30,651
0.10509%
140
SMALL FARMERS AND LAND TILLERS ASSOCIATION OF THE PHILIPPINES
30,001
0.10286%
141
SOCIAL MOVEMENT FOR ACTIVE REFORM AND TRANSPARENCY
28,617
0.09812%
142
AGRARIAN DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION
27,521
0.09436%
143
FIRST PEOPLE'S REPRESENTATIVE FOR INDIGENT STUDENT ATHLETES
27,229
0.09336%
144
ASSOCIATION OF ADMINISTRATOR, PROFESSIONALS AND SENIORS
20,753
0.07116%
145
BIGKIS PINOY MOVEMENT
19,027
0.06524%
146
ALYANSA NG MEDIA AT SHOWBIZ
17,534
0.06012%
147
ALAY SA BAYAN NG MALAYANG PROPESYONAL AT REPORMANG KALAKAL
17,125
0.05872%
148
ALLIANCE FOR PHILIPPINES SECURITY GUARDS COOPERATIVE
15,595
0.05347%
149
KABUKLURAN NG MGA KABABAIHANG FILIPINA SA TIMOG KATAGALUGAN
12,430
0.04262%
150
ANG PARTIDO DEMOKRATIKO RURAL
11,680
0.04005%
151
ABOT TANAW
10,473
0.03591%
152
ALYANSA LUMAD MINDANAO, INC.
6,612
0.02267%
153
CITIZEN POWER MOVEMENT, INC.
4,495
0.01541%
154
ANG NATIONAL COALITION ON INDIGENOUS PEOPLE'S ACTION
1,217
0.00417%
155
ABANTE KATUTUBO, INC.
26,593
0.09118%


29,165,716
100.000%





PCOS COUNT ERROR
2.56781%


VOTES MISCOUNTED BY THE PCOS MACHINES
    748,920


2% THRESHOLD
    583,314


We enumerate the following implications of the PCOS COUNT ERROR of 2.56781% on the result of the May 2010 Party List Election.

  1. Any one of the Party List Group who did not obtain 2% may have received 2% of the total party list votes (TPLV). For example, the last ranking party list group with 25,653 or 0.09118% of TPLV is possible to receive more than 2% of TPLV.
  2. Any one of the party list groups that obtained at least 2% of TPLV from Rank 2 to Rank 12 may not be a two-percenter. For example, the Second Ranking Party List Group with 1,296,950 votes 4.44683% may receive 1.87902% of the TPLV if the PCOS Count Error is taken into account.
  3.  The First Ranking Party List Group may not receive three seats since it is possible that its real percentage share of the TPLV is only 2.65752. Note that if there are 57 available party list seats and if there are 12 two-percenters, then those party list groups with at least 4.44444% of TPLV will have three (3) seats.

Felix P. Muga II
Associate Professor, Mathematics Department, Ateneo de Manila University (ADMU)
Senior Fellow, Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CenPEG)
Chair, Mathematical Sciences Division, National Research Council of the Philippines (NRCP)

Mathematics of Politics

No comments: