The mock election to demonstrate
the accuracy of the SMARTMATIC-provided PCOS Machines was conducted on July 24
and July 25 at the House of Representative.
Two hundred and thirteen (213) votes out of 8,295 votes that were counted by the PCOS Machine differed from the
count conducted by the Manual Audit on each of the candidates of the audited
elected positions.
The difference that amounts to 213 votes resulted in an error rating
of 2.56781% or an accuracy rating of
97.43219%.
Let us consider the implication
of the error rating of the PCOS Machine on some of the results of the May 2010
Congressional elections.
- . In the Lone District of Biliran of Eastern Visayas, the total number of votes counted by the PCOS Machines including the invalid votes was 82,127. Since the PCOS Machines have an error rating of 2.56781%, it follows that about 2,109 votes for the Congressional election of Biliran Province were miscounted by the PCOS Machine. The winning candidate in the Congressional District of Biliran had 40,010 votes and his losing rival had 39,649 votes. This means that the winning margin is only 361 votes. Hence, we could not really determine the real winner in the Lone District of Biliran since the PCOS Machines miscounted 2,109 votes and the proclaimed candidate led his rival by only 361 votes.
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SOURCE:
SOURCE:
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- In the 6th District of Manila of the National Capital Region, the total number of votes counted by the PCOS Machines including the invalid votes was 108,154. Since the PCOS Machines have an error rating of 2.56781%, it follows that about 2,777 votes for the Congressional Election of the 6th District of Manila were miscounted by the PCOS Machine. The winning candidate in the 6th Congressional District of Manila had 39,985 votes and the closest losing rival had 38,113 votes. This means that the winning margin is only 1,872 votes. Hence, we could not really determine the real winner in the 6th District of Manila since the PCOS Machines miscounted 2,777 votes and the proclaimed candidate led the rival by only 1,872 votes.
SOURCE:
- In the 1st District of Lanao del Sur of ARMM, the total number of votes counted by the PCOS Machines was 167,643. Since the PCOS Machines have an error rating of 2.56781%, it follows that about 4,305 votes for the Congressional Election of the 1st District of Manila were miscounted by the PCOS Machine. The winning candidate in the 6th Congressional District of Lanao del Sur had 66,765 votes and the closest losing rival had 65,489 votes. This means that the winning margin is only 1,276 votes. Hence, we could not really determine the real winner in the 1st District of Lanao del Sur since the PCOS Machines miscounted 4,305 votes and the proclaimed candidate led the rival by only 1,276 votes.
SOURCE:
- In the Lone District of ABRA of CAR, the total number of votes counted by the PCOS Machines was 119,651. Since the PCOS Machines have an error rating of 2.56781%, it follows that about 3,072 votes for the Congressional Election of the Lone District of Abra were miscounted by the PCOS Machine.The winning candidate in the Lone Congressional District of Abra had 46,536 votes and the closest losing rival had 45,454 votes. This means that the winning margin is only 1,082 votes. Hence, we could not really determine the real winner in the Lone District of Abra since the PCOS Machines miscounted 3,072 votes and the proclaimed candidate led the rival by only 1,082 votes.
- In the Lone District of MOUNTAIN PROVINCE of CAR, the total number of votes counted by the PCOS Machines was 74,791. Since the PCOS Machines have an error rating of 2.56781%, it follows that about 1,920 votes for the Congressional Election of the Lone District of MOUNTAIN PROVINCE were miscounted by the PCOS Machine. The winning candidate in the Lone Congressional District of MOUNTAIN PROVINCE had 24,724 votes and the closest losing rival had 23,973 votes. This means that the winning margin is only 751 votes.
SOURCE:
- In the Lone District of BATANES of CAGAYAN VALLEY, the total number of votes counted by the PCOS Machines was 8,473. Since the PCOS Machines have an error rating of 2.56781%, it follows that about 218 votes for the Congressional Election of the Lone District of BATANES were miscounted by the PCOS Machine.The winning candidate in the Lone District of BATANES had 3,076 votes and the closest losing rival had 2,988 votes. This means that the winning margin is only 88 votes. Hence, we could not really determine the real winner in the Lone District of BATANES since the PCOS Machines miscounted 218 votes and the proclaimed candidate led the rival by only 88 votes.
SOURCE:
- In the 2nd District of ISABELA of CAGAYAN VALLEY, the total number of votes counted by the PCOS Machines was 159,592. Since the PCOS Machines have an error rating of 2.56781%, it follows that about 4,098 votes for the Congressional Election of the 2nd District of ISABELA were miscounted by the PCOS Machine. The winning candidate in the 2nd District of ISABELA had 75,045 votes and the closest losing rival had 72,207 votes. This means that the winning margin is only 2,838 votes. Hence, we could not really determine the real winner in the 2nd District of ISABELA since the PCOS Machines miscounted 4,098 votes and the proclaimed candidate led the rival by only 2,838 votes.
SOURCE:
- In the 1st District of BATAAN of CENTRAL LUZON, the total number of votes counted by the PCOS Machines was 163,094. Since the PCOS Machines have an error rating of 2.56781%, it follows that about 4,188 votes for the Congressional Election of the 1st District of BATAAN were miscounted by the PCOS Machine. The winning candidate in the 1st District of BATAAN had 80,400 votes and the closest losing rival had 76,428 votes. This means that the winning margin is only 3,972 votes. Hence, we could not really determine the real winner in the 1st District of BATAAN since the PCOS Machines miscounted 4,188 votes and the proclaimed candidate led the rival by 3,972 votes.
SSOURCE:
The PCOS Counting Error is significant if it is
larger than the winning margin. It is
negligible if the winning margin is twice as large the PCOS Counting Error. However, it is still significant if the winning margin
is less than twice as large as the PCOS Counting Error.
For example, if the Candidate A has 100 votes and
Candidate B has 95 votes. If the PCOS miscounts 3 votes, then it is possible
that the actual votes of Candidate A is 100 – 3 = 97 votes and that of
Candidate B is 95 + 3 = 98 votes.
The following table lists the Congressional elections where
the PCOS MISCOUNT is still significant.
PROVINCE/CITY
|
DISTRICT
|
REGION
|
PCOS
MISCOUNT
|
WINNING
MARGIN
|
|
11
|
BATANGAS
|
3RD
|
IV-A
|
6,845
|
6,863
|
12
|
MARINDUQUE
|
LONE
|
IV-B
|
2,671
|
4,107
|
13
|
PALAWAN
|
2ND
|
IV-B
|
5,665
|
2,811
|
14
|
CAMARINES NORTE
|
2ND
|
V
|
2,626
|
3,881
|
15
|
CAMARINES SUR
|
5TH
|
V
|
1,228
|
1,032
|
16
|
SORSOGON
|
2ND
|
V
|
4,086
|
1,165
|
17
|
ILOILO
|
5TH
|
VI
|
4,500
|
8,586
|
18
|
EASTERN SAMAR
|
LONE
|
VIII
|
5,488
|
7,860
|
19
|
NORTHERN SAMAR
|
2ND
|
VIII
|
3,182
|
2,958
|
20
|
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE
|
2ND
|
IX
|
4,459
|
4,760
|
21
|
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY
|
2ND
|
IX
|
3,545
|
2,416
|
22
|
CAGAYAN DE ORO CITY
|
1ST
|
X
|
4,482
|
1,780
|
23
|
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
|
2ND
|
X
|
3,624
|
991
|
24
|
DAVAO CITY
|
1ST
|
XI
|
5,714
|
8,172
|
25
|
NORTH COTABATO
|
1ST
|
XIII
|
6,127
|
6,677
|
Felix P. Muga II
Associate Professor, Mathematics Department, Ateneo de Manila University (ADMU)
Senior Fellow, Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CenPEG)
Chair, Mathematical Sciences Division, National Research Council of the Philippines (NRCP)
Mathematics of Politics
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