A FAILURE OF PARTY LIST ELECTION IN 2013?

The House Committee on Suffrage and Electoral Reforms conducted a mock election on July 24-25, 2012  at the Nograles Hall, South Wing Building of the House of Representatives to demonstrate the counting capability of the SMARTMATIC-supplied PCOS machines for the 2013 elections.

South Wing Building , House of Representatives, Philiippines (www.congress.gov.ph)

The MANUAL COUNT had 768 votes while the PCOS COUNT had 770 votes for the Party List Position with 55 Party List Candidates. See Table 1. 

TABLE 1.    PARTY LIST POSITION
No.	Candidate	Manual Count	PCOS Count
1	BROWNBEAT ALLSTARS	80	79
2	DAGTANG LASON	25	25
3	GREYHOUNDZ	12	13
4	HALE	29	29
5	HOTDOG	68	68
6	IAXE	6	6
7	IMAGO	10	10
8	K AND THE BOXERS	3	3
9	KABISAYAAN	6	6
10	LA LIGA FILIPINA	8	8
11	LIYAH	1	1
12	MAHARLIKA	0	0
13	MANOMANO	2	2
14	MASTAPLANN	2	2
15	MEN OPPOSE	36	36
16	MOCHA GIRLS	61	60
17	NEW MINSTRELS	26	27
18	NINO and THE FORCE	36	36
19	P.O.T.	33	32
20	PACK OF WOLVZ	17	17
21	PAREDES	13	13
22	PASSAGE	9	9
23	PEDICAB	8	8
24	PIGS WITH PEARLS	5	5
25	PINAY	11	10
26	POWER FOUR	5	6
27	PROTEIN SHAKE	4	4
28	RAGE	2	2
29	RETROSPECT	30	30
30	ROCKSTEDDY	21	23
31	SALINGKET	22	19
32	SANDWICH	26	27
33	SENSITIVO	14	15
34	SESSION ROAD	13	13
35	SIDE A	13	13
36	SIN	4	4
37	SINOSIKAT?	9	10
38	SKY CHURCH	3	3
39	SOPIZ	0	0
40	SUNFLOWER DAY CAMP	5	5
41	TAGALOG REPUBLIC	5	5
42	THE GO GIRLS	19	18
43	THE HARBOR BABIES	12	12
44	THE MEMBERS	5	5
45	THE WUDS	4	5
46	TRUE FAITH	6	6
47	UP DHARMA DOWN	11	10
48	VIRUS ARTISTS	1	2
49	VOYZ AVENUE	1	2
50	WADAB	2	2
51	WATAWAT	3	3
52	WINK	5	5
53	WOLFGANG	4	4
54	X AXIS	0	0
55	ZELLE	12	12
		768	770

The MANUAL COUNT and the PCOS COUNT differed in 17 of the Party List Candidates and the total number of absolute differences is 20. See Table 2.

TABLE 2.   PARTY LIST POSITION
No.	Candidate	Manual Count	PCOS Count	Absolute Difference
1	SALINGKET	22	19	3
2	ROCKSTEDDY	21	23	2
3	BROWNBEAT ALLSTARS	80	79	1
4	GREYHOUNDZ	12	13	1
5	MOCHA GIRLS	61	60	1
6	NEW MINSTRELS	26	27	1
7	P.O.T.	33	32	1
8	PINAY	11	10	1
9	POWER FOUR	5	6	1
10	SANDWICH	26	27	1
11	SENSITIVO	14	15	1
12	SINOSIKAT?	9	10	1
13	THE GO GIRLS	19	18	1
14	THE WUDS	4	5	1
15	UP DHARMA DOWN	11	10	1
16	VIRUS ARTISTS	1	2	1
17	VOYZ AVENUE	1	2	1
				20

If we assume that the MANUAL COUNT is the TRUE COUNT of the Party List Votes in the mock election, then the PCOS COUNT miscounted 20 out of 768 party list votes. This gives an error rating of 20/768 or 2.60417%.

If these PCOS machines with 2.60417% ERROR RATING will be used in the 2013 Party Election, then the COMELEC cannot determine with certainty the WINNERS for three seats, two seats and one seat.

Therefore, we might have a FAILURE of  PARTY LIST ELECTION in 2013.

How do we avoid this disaster?

We recommend the following:

1. the COMELEC shall enforce the 99.995% accuracy rating specified in the Terms of Reference for the bidders of the 2010 Automated Election System. A 99.995% accuracy rating implies an error rating of at most 0.005%.
2. An accuracy rating of the PCOS machines shall be determined. COMELEC can ask the National Research Council of the Philippines (NRCP), an advisory arm of the Department of Science and Technology to do the certification.
3.  COMELEC shall promulgate a mechanism for the RECOUNT OF THE BALLOTS if the percentage share of votes of a Party List Candidate PLUS or MINUS the ERROR RATING determined and certified by NRCP shall cause to win an additional seat or to lose one seat for the said Party List Candidate.

by Felix P. Muga II
Associate Professor, Mathematics Department, Ateneo de Manila University
Senior Fellow, Center for People Empowerment in Governance

Mathematics of Politics