Sunday, September 9, 2012

INACCURATE PCOS AND THE 2010 SENATORIAL RACE


The mock election to demonstrate the accuracy of the SMARTMATIC-provided PCOS Machines was conducted on July 24 and July 25 at the House of Representative.

Two hundred and thirteen (213) votes out of 8,295 votes that were counted by the PCOS Machine differed from the count conducted by the Manual Audit on each of the candidates of the audited elected positions.
The difference that amounts to 213 votes resulted in an error rating of 2.56781% or an accuracy rating of 97.43219%.

On May 10, 2010, the national election for the Philippine senators was held. Out of the 61 candidates for the senatorial race, twelve will be proclaimed as winners. On May 15, 2010 nine senatorial candidates who were leading the race were proclaimed as winners. Three days after on May 18, 2010, the last three remaining senatorial slots were filled up with the proclamation of the last three winning candidates.

The total number of votes counted by the PCOS Machines in the senatorial race was 297,036,114 votes. However, the actual number of voters who voted for the senatorial race was 38,149,371. Hence, on the average each voter voted for about 8 out of the 12 available slots for the senatorial race.

Since a voter is required to vote for 12 or less unique candidates, it follows that a senatorial candidate received one or no vote from each voter.

Thus, the margin of error of the PCOS COUNT is based on the number of voters who actually voted for the senatorial race. Hence, the PCOS Machine miscounted the votes of 2.56781% of 38,149,371 or a total miscount of 979,603 votes.

We consider in Table 1 the 11th to 14th Positions of the Result of the PCOS COUNT ON THE 2010 SENATORIAL CONTEST.

Table 1. May 2010 Senatorial Contest:  11th-14th Positions as Counted by the PCOS Machines
Position
Senatorial Candidate
PCOS COUNT
11
Lito Lapid
11,025,805
12
Teofisto Guingona III
10,277,352
13
Risa Hontiveros-Baraquel
9,106,112
14
Ruffy Biazon
8,626,514

The PCOS Machines counted 11,025,805 votes for the 11th ranking senatorial candidate. If the PCOS MISCOUNT of 979,603 votes will be subtracted or added from the PCOS COUNT, the TRUE COUNT for the 11th ranking candidate ranges from as low as 10,046,202 or as high as 12,005,408.
Doing the same procedure on the 12th, 13th and 14th Positions we have Table 2.

Table 2. Subtracting or Adding the PCOS MISCOUNT of 979,603 Votes to the PCOS COUNT
Position
Senatorial Candidate
PCOS COUNT
TRUE COUNT
LOW
HIGH
11
Lito Lapid
11,025,805
              10,046,202
12,005,408
12
Teofisto Guingona III
10,277,352
                9,297,749
11,256,955
13
Risa Hontiveros-Baraquel
9,106,112
                8,126,509
10,085,715
14
Ruffy Biazon
8,626,514
                 7,646,911
9,606,117

Hence, we counted 5 possibilities for the 11th and 12th places after considering the PCOS MISCOUNT OF 979,603 votes. See Table 3.

Table 3. Possible Winning Combination
No.
11th PLACE
12th PLACE
1
Lito Lapid
Teofisto Guingona III
2
Lito Lapid
Risa Hontiveros-Baraquel
3
Lito Lapid
Ruffy Biazon
4
Teofisto Guingona III
Lito Lapid
5
Teofisto Guingona III
Risa Hontiveros-Baraquel

For example, we can have a Lito Lapid for the 11th place and Risa Hontiveros-Baraquel for the 12th place, if Lito Lapid’s TRUE COUNT is the PCOS COUNT of 11,025,805 and Risa Hontiveros-Baraquel had a HIGH TRUE COUNT of 10,085,715 while Teofisto Guingona III had a LOW TRUE COUNT of 9,297,749.

Hence, the PCOS MISCOUNT of 2.56781% of the total number of actual voters of 38,149,371 produces uncertainty at the 11th and 12th Places for the May 2010 Senatorial Race.

Therefore, a 100% Manual Recount must be conducted to determine the real winners for the 11th and 12th places of the May 2010 senatorial election.

Table 4. Summary of the May 10, 2010 Philippine Senate election results
Rank
Candidate
Party
Votes
Percent Share
1
Bong Revilla
Lakas-Kampi
19,513,521
51.15%
2
Jinggoy Estrada
PMP
18,925,925
49.61%
3
Miriam Defensor Santiago
PRP
17,344,742
45.47%
4
Franklin Drilon
Liberal
15,871,117
41.60%
5
Juan Ponce Enrile
PMP
15,665,618
41.06%
6
Pia Cayetano
Nacionalista
13,679,511
35.86%
7
Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.
Nacionalista
13,169,634
34.52%
8
Ralph Recto
Liberal
12,436,960
32.60%
9
Tito Sotto
NPC
11,891,711
31.17%
10
Sergio OsmeƱa III
Independent
11,656,668
30.56%
11
Lito Lapid
Lakas-Kampi
11,025,805
28.90%
12
Teofisto Guingona III
Liberal
10,277,352
26.94%
13
Risa Hontiveros-Baraquel
Liberal
9,106,112
23.87%
14
Ruffy Biazon
Liberal
8,626,514
22.61%
15
Joey de Venecia
PMP
8,375,043
21.95%
16
Gilbert Remulla
Nacionalista
7,454,557
19.54%
17
Danilo Lim
Independent
7,302,784
19.14%
18
Sonia Roco
Liberal
6,774,010
17.76%
19
Ariel Querubin
Nacionalista
6,547,925
17.16%
20
Gwendolyn Pimentel
PDP-Laban
6,394,347
16.76%
21
Nereus Acosta
Liberal
5,921,111
15.52%
22
Alexander Lacson
Liberal
5,242,594
13.74%
23
Adel Tamano
Nacionalista
4,059,748
10.64%
24
Emilio Mario OsmeƱa
PROMDI
3,980,370
10.43%
25
Liza Maza
Independent
3,855,800
10.11%
26
Satur Ocampo
Bayan Muna
3,539,345
9.28%
27
Francisco Tatad
GAD
3,331,083
8.73%
28
Ramon Mitra III
Nacionalista
2,744,090
7.19%
29
Apolinario Lozada
PMP
2,730,279
7.16%
30
Rey Langit
Lakas-Kampi
2,694,213
7.06%
31
Silvestre Bello III
Lakas-Kampi
2,468,276
6.47%
32
Yasmin Lao
Liberal
2,081,895
5.46%
33
Imelda Papin
Bangon Pilipinas
1,972,667
5.17%
34
Susan Ople
Nacionalista
1,930,038
5.06%
35
Martin Bautista
Liberal
1,890,152
4.95%
36
Rodolfo Plaza
NPC
1,517,905
3.98%
37
JV Larion Bautista
PMP
1,415,117
3.71%
38
Ramon Guico
Lakas-Kampi
1,264,982
3.32%
39
Raul Lambino
Lakas-Kampi
1,156,294
3.03%
40
Hector Villanueva
KBL
979,708
2.57%
41
Ramoncito Ocampo
Bangon Pilipinas
944,725
2.48%
42
Kata Inocencio
Bangon Pilipinas
888,771
2.33%
43
Jovito Palparan, Jr.
Independent
825,208
2.16%
44
Alex Tinsay
Bangon Pilipinas
728,339
1.91%
45
Zafrullah Alonto
Bangon Pilipinas
712,628
1.87%
46
Reginald Tamayo
Ang Kapatiran
680,211
1.78%
47
Nanette Espinosa
KBL
607,569
1.59%
48
Regalado Maambong
KBL
545,967
1.43%
49
Shariff Ibrahim Albani
KBL
508,558
1.33%
50
Rizalito David
Ang Kapatiran
504,259
1.32%
51
Israel Virgines
Bangon Pilipinas
455,332
1.19%
52
Zosimo Paredes
Bangon Pilipinas
437,439
1.15%
53
Adrian Sison
Ang Kapatiran
418,055
1.10%
54
Reynaldo Princesa
Independent
364,245
0.95%
55
Jo Aurea Imbong
Ang Kapatiran
362,457
0.95%
56
Adz Nikabulin
Bangon Pilipinas
346,848
0.91%
57
Henry Caunan
PDP-Laban
240,676
0.63%
58
Manuel Valdehuesa, Jr.
Ang Kapatiran
201,118
0.53%
59
Hector Tarrazona
Ang Kapatiran
168,386
0.44%
60
Ma. Gracia RiƱoza-Plazo
Ang Kapatiran
151,755
0.40%
61
Alma Lood
KBL
128,045
0.34%
Total turnout
38,149,371
100.00%
Total votes
297,036,114
N/A
Registered voters
51,317,073
74.34%
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_Senate_election,_2010


Felix P. Muga II
Associate Professor, Mathematics Department, Ateneo de Manila University (ADMU)
Senior Fellow, Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CenPEG)
Chair, Mathematical Sciences Division, National Research Council of the Philippines (NRCP)

Mathematics of Politics

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